Excerpts from John Ibbitson’s February 20, 2014 CIGI blog and February 21, 2014 Globe and Mail article
President Barack Obama, left, Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto, center, and the Prime Minister of Canada, Stephen Harper, shake hands at the North American Leaders Summit. (AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo)
For Canada and the United States, this is the watershed year.
Obviously, Keystone XL is key. In the years leading up to this year’s presidential decision on whether to permit the pipeline from Alberta to the Gulf, the Americans expected Canada to…(undertake) made-in-Canada initiatives to reduce carbon emissions from the oil sands and elsewhere, which would have provided the President with cover for approving the pipeline despite intense opposition from environmentalists. The Americans were surprised…when, instead of offering concessions, Mr. Harper declared that approving the pipeline was a “no brainer” and that, on Keystone, “you don’t take no for an answer”.
(Another) crucial issue is the Trans Pacific Partnership. Trade ministers are meeting in Singapore this weekend in an effort to nail down a final agreement among the 12 Pacific Rim nations involved. Mr. Harper fumed when the Americans imposed onerous conditions before allowing Canada to join the talks.
Finally, there’s the border. Progress on a new bridge to link Windsor and Detroit, North America’s busiest crossing, continues its two-steps-forward-one-and-three-quarter’s-step-back crab walk. At the crossing near Niagara Falls, trucks crossing the Peace Bridge will be pre-cleared on the Canadian side of the border in a pilot project starting next week that aims to reduce congestion and fumes from idling trucks. So the Beyond the Border accord is finally starting to show results.
Put it all together and what do you get? Approval for a pipeline that will allow continued expansion of the Alberta oil sands. A landmark trade agreement that updates the North American Free Trade Agreement while also re-orienting Canadian trade toward the Pacific. And major new infrastructure projects to ease cross-border traffic.
Or, President Obama vetoes Keystone. The Trans Pacific Partnership talks fall apart. Legal challenges and opposition from Homeland Security scuttle border improvements.
Let’s hope the good news scenario prevails.
